Iran launched its second massive barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, 2024, as part of a cycle of escalation and retaliation between the two Middle Eastern states. That volley involved between 180 and 200 ballistic missiles, compared to an Iranian attack in April that involved 120 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles, and over 170 kamikaze drones. The attack—allegedly ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rather than Iran's new president—was Iran's move to save face after a series of crushing blows inflicted by Israel on the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group, a close ally of Iran's.
However, Iran's latest barrage could have triggered a full-scale war. Fortunately, it didn't: when Israel retaliated on October 26 with a large air attack involving over 100 aircraft, it refrained from targeting Iran's most sensitive energy and nuclear facilities. That counterstrike did kill five Iranian military personnel.
Iranian leadership may have banked on the assumption that its own attack wouldn't inflict massive casualties due to factors like high failure rates, U.S. and Israeli early warning capability, focus on attacking military targets in less populated areas, and perhaps even counting on Israel and its allies to successfully leverage ballistic missile defense technology to minimize the consequences of the assault. |
Iran launched its second massive barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1, 2024, as part of a cycle of escalation and retaliation between the two Middle Eastern states. That volley involved between 180 and 200 ballistic missiles, compared to an Iranian attack in April that involved 120 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles, and over 170 kamikaze drones. The attack—allegedly ordered by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rather than Iran's new president—was Iran's move to save face after a series of crushing blows inflicted by Israel on the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group, a close ally of Iran's.
However, Iran's latest barrage could have triggered a full-scale war. Fortunately, it didn't: when Israel retaliated on October 26 with a large air attack involving over 100 aircraft, it refrained from targeting Iran's most sensitive energy and nuclear facilities. That counterstrike did kill five Iranian military personnel.
Iranian leadership may have banked on the assumption that its own attack wouldn't inflict massive casualties due to factors like high failure rates, U.S. and Israeli early warning capability, focus on attacking military targets in less populated areas, and perhaps even counting on Israel and its allies to successfully leverage ballistic missile defense technology to minimize the consequences of the assault. |
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